PQ could win a slim majority in Quebec Sept. 4th

A recent article in the Globe and Mail projects a slim majority government for the Parti Quebecois in the upcoming provincial election on September 4.

The latest polls are as follows. CROP poll of August 29: Liberals 26%; Parti Quebecois 32%; CAQ 28%, Quebec Solidaire 9%. FORUM poll August 28: Liberals 28%; PQ 33%; CAQ 27%; Quebec Solidaire 8%. The Liberals do not seem to be making up any ground on the PQ. The CAQ(Coalition Avenir Quebec) may split the vote in several constituencies now held by Liberals and allow the PQ to win.

The Globe and Mail predictions for seats are as follows. The PQ would win 66 seats based on 34.% of the vote. This percentage is a bit higher than in the polls I referenced. Sixty three seats are needed for a majority. The Liberals would win 32 seats with 28.5% of the vote and the CAQ would win 25 seats with 25.8%. Finally Quebec Solidaire would win two seats with 6.7% of the vote. Other parties including the Greens and Option Nationale would not win any seats.

Since the four debates the Liberals have lost more than 4 per cent in the polls and 15 seats. The PQ has been relatively stable but the CAQ is up over 3% in the polls. However Liberals remain ahead in the island of Montreal and this will probably enable them to be the official opposition. The CAQ however now leads in Quebec City with almost 36 per cent of the vote at the same time as the Liberals have dropped 5 points to 28 per cent since August 14. The PQ is doing well outside the two main urban centers of Montreal and Quebec City.

Among the non-francophone population the Liberals are still dominant at 63.7% but even this represents a drop of about 11 points. Although the CAQ has only 16.6% of those voters that is still a gain of 7% within two weeks. More of those voters may move to the CAQ as the only alternative to the PQ and this could spell disaster for the Liberals.

The PQ is already planning strategy and formulating demands it will make on the Harper government. Six years ago Harper's Conservative government passed a motion in the House of Commons recognizing the Quebecois as a nation within Canada. The motion helped the rise of the right wing Action Democratique du Quebec and helped defeat the Parti Quebecois. Now that move will come back to haunt the Conservatives.

The PQ leader Pauline Marois will challenge Harper to hand over control in different areas based upon the principle that Quebec is a nation. If Harper baulks and offer her little or nothing Marois will use this as an argument to try to convince Quebeckers that Quebec independence is the only way forward. Of course first she must win the election and that is far from a sure thing. Even if she does win she may face a minority situation rather than being in the majority.

Poll: Rosy picture for Charest

This is from the Montreal Gazette.
The story here is the collapse of the ADQ. It looks as if Charest will be able to pull off what Harper was unable to do a majority. Even though Charest used some of the same excuses for an election as Harper the situation is different. Even with infighting and Dion as leader the federal Liberal party was not about to collapse in the way the ADQ has done.


Rosy picture for Charest: poll
Voters see him as best leader, by far. Marois trails premier 44% to 36%, while Dumont's numbers are lagging badly at 12%
L. IAN MACDONALD, Special to The GazettePublished: 18 hours ago
Jean Charest's Liberals are close to majority territory in the Quebec election, leading the Parti Quebecois by 44 to 36 per cent, with l'Action démocratique du Québec trailing badly at 12 per cent, in a Nanos Research poll for Policy Options magazine, made available to The Gazette.
Quebec Solidaire and the Green Party each received four per cent in the poll of 505 Quebecers, conducted by telephone between Nov. 14 and 18, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 per cent.
Leaving aside the horse race, Charest dominates a series of questions on leadership, and the Liberals have a clear advantage on the best party brand. Charest's leadership attributes have improved substantially from a Nanos poll conducted in the middle of the last campaign in March 2007, while Mario Dumont's leadership numbers and the ADQ brand have gone south.
"The underlying indicators on leadership and party brand show the fundamentals for the Liberals look very good," pollster Nik Nanos said. "While the election isn't over, the Liberal fundamentals are very strong."
In comparative research with identical leadership questions in the last campaign, "Charest has substantially strengthened his position," Nanos said. "He enjoys an advantage on all major leadership measures." PQ leader Pauline Marois receives "good, but lower, ratings than Charest." Dumont's leadership numbers have tanked.
"There has been a significant erosion in the positive perceptions of Mario Dumont and the ADQ since the last election," Nanos said.
Charest has a positive perception among 47 per cent of voters, with a negative perception among 22. Marois enjoys a positive perception of 43 per cent, with a negative perception of 27. Dumont has a positive perception of 28 per cent, but a negative perception of 34 per cent.
On the question of "which leader has the best vision for Quebec," Charest leads at 34 per cent, to 25 per cent for Marois, and 15 per cent for Dumont. To the question of "which leader is the most competent," Charest dominates at 48 per cent, to 25 per cent for Marois and eight per cent for Dumont. To the question of which leader is most trusted, Charest leads at 36 per cent, to 25 per cent for Marois and 15 per cent for Dumont.
On the question of which leader "has the character to be premier of Quebec," Charest dominates at 48 per cent, to 24 per cent for Marois and 12 per cent for Dumont. To the question of "which leader has the brightest political future" Charest leads at 45 per cent, to 23 per cent for Marois and 13 per cent for Dumont.

Quebec election set for Dec. 8th

This is from the Star.

Charest seems to think that he can pull off the steady at the helm ploy and the pleading for a majority better than Harper. Two different parties but same strategy. It will be interesting to see if Charest comes out any better than Harper. Perhaps Charest will be punished for calling an election just after a federal election and when as with Harper it seemed not to be necessary.


Quebecers set to vote, again TheStar.com - Canada - Quebecers set to vote, again
Charest focuses on economy in calling election for Dec. 8 that will be province's sixth in five years
November 06, 2008 Andrew ChungQUEBEC BUREAU CHIEF
MONTREAL–Quebec residents will experience their sixth election campaign in five years, now that Premier Jean Charest has called a provincial vote for Dec. 8.
While the opposition described his actions as a cynical ploy, Charest, who led a minority government, wasted no time in trying to shape the tenor for the coming month. Had Parti Québécois Leader Pauline Marois or Mario Dumont, leader of Action démocratique du Québec, been in the premier's seat, Quebec today would be in dire financial straits, he charged.
"If we had listened to Pauline Marois or Mario Dumont, today Quebec would be in recession," Charest said. "Middle-class families would have less money. There would be fewer jobs and more unemployed."
Placards displayed the Liberals' campaign slogan: "The Economy First."
"We have managed the economic file well," Charest said.
The premier was speaking at a news conference on the picturesque Promenade Samuel-de Champlain in Quebec City after visiting Lieutenant-Governor Pierre Duchesne and asking him to dissolve the National Assembly.
At dissolution, the Liberals had 48 seats in the National Assembly, the ADQ 39 seats and the PQ 36.
This will be Quebecers' sixth election in five years, counting federal and provincial votes. The last provincial election was in March 2007.
Charest attacked the opposition for opposing measures he said had put Quebec in position to weather turbulent economic times, including a tax cut for the middle class and billions invested in infrastructure.
On Tuesday, Finance Minister Monique Jérôme-Forget delivered an economic update that reported slowing, but still positive, growth for Quebec this fiscal year and next, which she said was thanks to the infrastructure programs.
Charest said Quebecers will pronounce upon one overarching question this election: "Which team do you trust at the time of an economic storm?" He asked voters to give his Liberals a "clear mandate to get past this storm."
Minority governments are unstable, he said. Though he said he understood that Quebecers might not want another election now, "I also know in my heart and in my soul that, as we look ahead, we're facing an economic storm and that we need, as Quebecers, to prepare. And that we can't face an economic storm with three different pairs of hands on the rudder of our ship."
Dumont accused Charest of pandering to the lowest form of politics in calling the election now. He said that, contrary to Charest's claims, abandoning the assembly and hitting the campaign trail during an economic crisis proves the premier is more concerned about power than pocketbooks.
Instead of "the economy first," Dumont said the slogan should be "the economy tossed aside."
Dumont said it was only due to partisan politics that an election is being held now, particularly since the opposition parties pledged to support the government in dealing with the economy.
The parties accused the Liberals of hiding a deficit, although Jérôme-Forget on Tuesday said that Quebec would be deficit-free for the next two years, thanks to a $2.3 billion reserve.
Quebec's auditor-general has questioned the existence of the reserve, however, pointing out that on March 31, 2007, Quebec had a $5.8 billion accumulated deficit.
Marois, whose party stands second behind the Liberals in the latest polls, said she would focus on the economy in the campaign, but would not "hide" the party's raison-d'être: sovereignty.