Liberals gaining ground as NDP lead shrinks in latest polls

New CBC poll-tracker averages show the NDP lead is shrinking, the Liberals are gaining ground, and the Conservatives have sunk to third place.

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The CBC poll-tracker of averages now has three polls in September to add to its averages. The results up to September 2 are: Conservatives, 27.7 percent of the vote down 1.7 percent from last average; Liberals 29.5 percent, up 1.8 percent; the NDP 32.1 percent up 0.9 percent.

Seat projections based upon the above averages are: Conservatives 101; NDP 122; Liberals 114 and Green party one. The NDP are nowhere near the 170 seats needed for a majority. The Conservatives have now dropped to third place in seats as well as popular vote percentage. On social media the Conservatives at first appear to be doing well as shown by graphs here. The Liberals appear to outperform the NDP. However, the data may be misleading as a lot of traffic on Conservative social media is created by critics who lose no opportunity to try to counter Conservative claims. Some of the Conservative media campaign is tried and true. A photo op shows Harper holding a baby.

The NDP appears to be losing considerable support in BC while the Liberals are gaining considerably more support in Ontario. Compared to the last election the Liberals are projected to win 47 more seats.

The most recent poll by Leger in the Globe and Mail this Friday shows: NDP,31 percent; Liberals, 30 percent and Conservatives at 28 percent. On Saturday a Forum poll in the Toronto Star showed: NDP, 36 percent; Liberals, 32 percent and Conservatives at a dismal 24 percent. TheEKOS poll published Friday found: NDP, 30.2 percent; Conservatives, 29.4, and Liberals with 27.7. The NDP appears unable to pull away from the pack while the Liberals are gaining. However, all three main parties are quite close in the polls.

August 24 poll averages show NDP in slim lead

A recent poll by Nanos, Globe and Mail, CTV shows the three main parties in a virtual tie although other recent polls still show the NDP ahead by several points. Nevertheless the NDP vote percentage has gone down since the last CBC poll-tracker averages.

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The Nanos poll shows the Conservatives at 30.1 percent of the vote, the NDP is at 29.1 percent and the Liberals at 29.9. The Nanos poll is in contrast to two other recent polls that still have the NDP leading by several points. Nanos polls for some reason in several cases give lower values for the NDP than other polls as can be seen by the list of polls at the CBC poll-tracker.

Nevertheless the poll averages also show a decline for the NDP and the three parties closer in the polls. The most recent poll-tracker results averaged on August 24 are: Conservatives 29.4 percentage of vote, a slight gain of 0.2 from the last polls; the NDP at 32.3, a significant drop of 1.5 from last time; and the Liberals at 28.3 the largest gain of 0.8. Seat projections show the NDP still ahead with 126 seats, followed by the Conservatives with 118 and the Liberals trailing with only 93. The Green Party would win one seat and the Parti Quebecois none.

In the previous elections in 2008 and 2011, Harper was able to successfully claim that his Conservative government was best suited to guide the economy. This time around with the Canadian economy in the doldrums if not recession and the stock markets tanking, this advantage appears to be declining. The economy is still a crucial election issue. A recent Ipsos Reid poll showed that 76 per cent of Canadians considered the economy "absolutely critical" to determining their vote. Three quarters also said the same for creating jobs. An Abacus Data polls shows that only 43 percent of Canadians think the economy is good or very good. Two years ago 67 per cent thought this. The numbers of those who think the country is on the wrong track have increased while those thinking it is on the right track, still 36 per cent, has declined. While one third think the economy is still growing, 64 percent think it is shrinking. There are more detailed results at the Abacus site with quite helpful figures.

On the issue of leadership on the 15 issues tested, on all 15 a majority of respondents thought Mulcair or Trudeau would make more acceptable decisions than Harper. However, on the economy, respondents in three of four recent polls gave Harper an edge of one or two points over Mulcair and the NDP. An IPSOS poll showed a wider lead of 36 to 28 percent for Harper. If the vote were on the economy alone Harper might win at most a small minority victory and perhaps not even that as he no longer has a huge advantage on the issue. With Canada facing economic troubles and the energy sector in particular badly hit, the opposition is sure to blame Harper for this situation even though much is beyond his control. Likely, emphasis will continue on the issue of ethics in opposition attacks on Harper. Polls so far do not show any negative results for the Conservatives in response to the revelations at the Duffy trial.

Ignatieff falls for loyal, clean, puffin

I agree with the scientist that birds should not be judged in terms of humans. Birds do not create Weapons of Mass Destruction and they do not watch hour long memorials on the tenth anniversary of Princess Diana's death. They go about their bird business. It seems that there are in most societies linkages between birds and animals and human culture though.
Liberals may approve of hiding excrement to keep their politics clean but the opposition will go to any length to dig it up again. The puffin is hot a very good flyer and has to work like the devil to keep aloft. It often crash lands. This is a good metaphor for Liberal fortunes.


Ignatieff falls for loyal, clean puffin
'A Symbol For Our Party'
Craig Offman, National Post
Published: Friday, August 31, 2007
Move over, mighty eagle. Here comes the proud puffin.

Outside the Liberal party caucus retreat being held in St. John's yesterday, deputy leader Michael Ignatieff praised the morals of Newfoundland's provincial bird and suggested his party make it the symbol for the Grits.

"It's a noble bird because it has good family values. They stay together for 30 years," Mr. Ignatieff said, adding that the bird is an industrious creature that embodies Liberal values. "This seems to me a symbol for what our party should be."


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Atlantic Puffins nesting on Machias Island in the Bay of Fundy, New Brunswick.
Diane Doiron/National Post

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Font: ****The MP and philosopher also added that "they lay one egg [each year]. They put their excrement in one place. They hide their excrement. ... They flap their wings very hard and they work like hell," according to a report from The Canadian Press.

Formerly called the common puffin, the Atlantic puffin is one of four species in the Alcidae (Auk) family of seabirds and the most prevalent in the Newfoundland area. In the late 1800s, scientists gave it the Latin name fratercula arctica, or "little brother of the north." A potential pun, the puffin's black and white plumage resembles the robes of a friar, or brother.

Dr. Stephen Kress, an ornithology professor at Cornell University in Ithaca, N.Y., and the director of the Seabird Restoration Program of the National Audubon Society, said he agrees with Mr. Ignatieff 's assessment of the bird's nobility, though he questioned the Liberal MP's estimate of their conjugal time.

"They are noted for monogamy," said Dr. Kress. "But we don't have any records for birds who stay together that long."

The bird's typical life expectancy is 20 years, but on occasion can stretch to 30.

Dr. Kress said the birds are discriminating mate-pickers. They have an engagement period and will cohabitate for a year before having a chick. This happens around the age of five. During the five-week incubation period, the parents share responsibility in the home, which is often nestled in soil burrows on sides of cliffs. Both father and mother will take turns keeping the egg warm under their wings. Indeed, only one egg is laid annually, and the same burrow is kept every year.

Once the chick is born, parents fret over cleanliness, which in part entails a separate spot for the young bird to relieve itself. "The puffin goes to great lengths to keep the burrow clean," added Dr. Kress. Oils from the excrement could damage a young bird's feathers. As the chick matures, the toilet is moved closer to the burrow entrance, eliminating the risk of exposure.

Contrary to common perception, puffins don't starve their young so that they'll leave. Parents collect fish for their chicks, who leave of their own volition, and then protect the area from invaders. The puffin wards them off by puffing up their cheeks and showing the orange insides of its mouth, a form of what scientists call "gape display." No noise is made during the exchange.

While some Liberals might welcome the suggestion, some scientists might be dismissive. "In my view, birds shouldn't be judges in terms of humans. This is what scientists have been fighting for centuries," said Michel Gosselin, an expert on birds who works at the Canadian Museum of Nature. "There is no such thing as a noble bird. What? Would the bird be more noble if he laid 20 eggs a year?"

Liberals win large majority in Prince Edward Island

This is from the Charlottetown Guardian. From earlier statements I thought this was supposed to be a close race but the Conservatives only retained four of twenty seven seats! However, parties usually win by large majorities in PEI when they do win. This was the Liberal leader's second try.


Robert Ghiz wins P.E.I. election, ending 11-year run by Pat Binns 16

BY CHRIS MORRIS
The Guardian

CHARLOTTETOWN (CP) - Fourteen years after his father left office, Robert Ghiz has followed his career path into the premier's chair in Prince Edward Island.

Ghiz, 33, easily defeated Conservative Premier Pat Binns, who had been seeking a fourth term as Canada's longest-serving premier.
The Liberals, who entered the month-long campaign with just four seats in the 27-seat legislature, led in ridings across the province as Island voters heeded Ghiz's call for political change.

Ghiz's late father, Joe Ghiz, was Liberal premier from 1986 to 1993. He died of cancer in 1996.


P.E.I. Liberal Leader Robert Ghiz watches the election outcome on television with his wife Kate Ellis Ghiz in his mother's house Monday in Charlottetown. (CP PHOTO/Jacques Boissinet
The younger Ghiz's win marks the second time a son has followed his father into the premier's office in Canada's smallest province. The first two were Thane Campbell and his son, Alex Cambell.

Binns entered the election with 23 seats but saw that total dwindle as a number of his cabinet ministers fell to defeat, including Health Minister Chester Gillan.

Ghiz told Islanders during an uneventful campaign that the time was right for political change, promising he could deliver a younger, more energetic administration.

Ghiz was elected in his riding of Charlottetown-Brighton while Binns held a comfortable lead in Belfast-Murray River.

Binns, 58, called the election with the pledge to continue a legacy built on job creation and steady economic growth.

While P.E.I. politics has long been dominated by the Tories and Liberals, the NDP under Leader Dean Constable, and the Green party under Sharon Labchuk, fought to keep their issues of social justice and environmental responsibility front and centre. They did not make any serious gains in the popular vote and were not in position to pick up any seats.

There were no major surprises during the campaign, although Binns was more aggressive than usual as he defended his administration against a strong attack by the Liberals.

By the end of the campaign, Binns sounded tired as he thanked supporters at a large Charlottetown rally.

"Most of you know I came from away," said Binns, who was born and raised in Saskatchewan.

"I found two loves of my life here on P.E.I. My wonderful partner and wife, Carol, and secondly, I fell in love with this very special place - a piece of God's creation. Islanders have welcomed me into this great community as if I was born here."

Binns admitted the campaign was tough. He said no government can serve 11 years without accumulating some political baggage.

He made it clear that, if elected, he would serve a full term in office but that it would be his last.

"I'm proud of our record," Binns said. "We have moved the Island a long way in 10 years."

This was the second election campaign for Ghiz, chosen leader of the Liberals in 2003.

Many observers believed Ghiz was under pressure to improve Liberal fortunes, or face an early end to his career in provincial politics.

Ghiz seized on the theme of change, promising lower taxes, better health care and a new approach to government.

Patronage is part of the political fabric on the Island, and while Ghiz did not promise to eliminate it, he hinted it would be less important in a Liberal administration.

"It's time we had a government that puts good public policy ahead of politics," he said, adding he would consider a "thorough reconstruction" of how the provincial government works.

Close to 98,000 people were eligible to vote on the Island of 137,000.

Voter turnout was heavy throughout Monday, despite grey skies and the occasional downpour.

Interest in the election was heightened by the fact that for the first time in years, no one was sure who would win.

Previous provincial elections were generally a cakewalk for the genial Binns, a bean farmer from Murray River, P.E.I.

"For Islanders, politics is a bloodsport," said political commentator Ian Dowbiggin, a history professor at the University of Prince Edward Island.

"There is a certain intimacy about P.E.I. provincial politics that is unmatched anywhere else in Canada."

Dowbiggin said that for many Islanders, the choice on election day ultimately boiled down to which one of the leaders they preferred.

He said the choice was between Binns's affability and experience and Ghiz's youth and energy.

Ottawa Tory claims there are extremist elements in Liberal Party

No doubt from some Conservatives point of view there are extremists in the Liberal party and also in the NDP! The Conservatives are trying to portray the Liberals as soft on terrorism or something of that nature. The recently repealed provisions were passed in the aftermath and over-reaction to 9/11. They have never even been used and were hardly necessary anyway. Harper and some of his party are probably not helping their cause with the type of character assassination and ad hominem rhetoric that they are engaging in these days.


MP's 'extremist' comment draws Liberal fire
Last Updated: Tuesday, February 27, 2007 | 6:06 PM ET
CBC News
Liberals are demanding that a Conservative member of Parliament apologize for saying that there are "extremist elements" within the Liberal party.

"We know there is an extremist element in the Liberal party generally that has been very vocal in opposing measures that are designed to combat terrorism," Ottawa Tory MP Pierre Poilievre told a radio interviewer last week.

"And it would seem that Mr. Dion has collapsed under the pressure from those groups."

Poilievre remarks come in the wake of Tuesday's vote over extending anti-terrorism measures that provide authorities with special arrest and investigative powers. The measures, which are set to expire Thursday, were introduced by the Liberals following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. But Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion opposes extending some of the provisions.

"All of us are looking to understand why the Liberals have had this sudden flip-flop. We're looking for an explanation of their motives," Poilievre said. "Now we know that a lot of extremist groups and people with some very hard left-wing views have advocated for a long time that these provisions should be scrapped."

Poilievre alleged that many of those people supported Dion's leadership bid.

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He also said that some with the Liberal caucus want to legalize Hezbollah, and shut down the investigation into the 1985 Air India bombing.

Liberal MP Omar Alghabra called Poilievre's comments "outrageous, slanderous" and demanded an apology.

"This is the pattern that this government, this Conservative party, is following in choosing to go to the lowest level of politics that they can find to smear people just to make a political point," he said.

"Instead of focusing on the substance of the debate, they're trying to distract Canadians and smear honourable members of the House."

Liberal MP Navdeep Bains said the Liberal party is seeking legal advice about possibly suing Poilievre.

In the radio interview, Poilievre was asked whether he thought Bains was an extremist. Poilievre would only say that he doesn't comment on individuals.

Last week, Prime Minister Stephen Harper caused an uproar in the House of Commons when he appeared to suggest that the Liberals were opposed to renewing the anti-terrorism measures because they're trying to protect Bains's father-in-law from having to testify in the continuing Air India investigation.

With files from the Canadian Press