These polls are often suspect although it would not be surprising there is concern for security. Other polls and data show little support for the national army and police. One wonders if representatives of the police or army are present at the polling to protect the pollsters! This is from sfgate.
Afghan Residents Say Security Declining
By FISNIK ABRASHI, Associated Press Writer
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
(10-23) 04:18 PDT KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) --
Afghans believe the security situation in their country has deteriorated, compared with last year, but they say life is better now than under Taliban rule, a U.S.-funded survey released Tuesday found.
About 46 percent of more than 6,200 adults surveyed nationwide feel security is the biggest problem afflicting the country, while 29 percent think it is unemployment, according to the survey, which was conducted by the Asia Foundation and paid for by the U.S. Agency for International Development.
"In the 2006 survey, it was unemployment first, followed by security and corruption, and this time around it is security first followed by unemployment and poor economy. This further underlines the deterioration in security in the eyes of the common Afghans," the survey said.
Despite the rise in violence, about four in 10 of those responding said they feel the country is headed in the right direction. That's roughly the same as those who answered the 2006 survey. Half of those surveyed said they were more prosperous today than during Taliban rule in the late 1990s.
Afghanistan is experiencing its worst bout of violence since the Taliban were removed from power in a U.S.-led invasion in 2001. More than 5,200 people — mostly militants — have died in insurgency-related violence so far this year, according to an Associated Press count based on figures from Afghan and Western officials.
"Insecurity is the main reason for the people to believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction," the survey said.
While lack of security was the top-ranked national issue, those surveyed identified a lack of electricity and water, and unemployment as the main problems on a local level, the survey found.
The foundation said the survey was conducted in all 34 provinces and was the largest comprehensive opinion poll ever conducted in Afghanistan. Some 6,263 people 18 and older were interviewed in person by a team of 494 trained interviewers between June 11 and June 22. The margin of error was 2.4 percentage points, it said.
Almost half of the people of Afghanistan think that their families are more prosperous today than they were during the Taliban regime, the survey found. However, more than a fourth think they are less prosperous today.
More than 80 percent of the respondents said they have confidence in the Afghanistan's National Army and the country's troublesome police force, while more than half said they do not trust the formal justice system and would rather rely on traditional forms of justice — decisions by local councils — to settle their disputes.
About eight in 10 felt that cultivation of opium poppies was wrong, with half of these respondents citing religion as the reason, but only about one in 10 linked the trade to terrorism, insecurity and corruption in the country, it said.
Afghanistan accounts for more than 93 percent of the world's supply of opium, the main ingredient in heroin, a lucrative trade whose proceeds in part fund some of the Taliban-led insurgency. The drug trade also has a corrupting influence on local government officials.
Showing posts with label Afghan poll. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Afghan poll. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Polling Afghanistan: Questions and Contradictions
This is from the following site. THis article shows that the poll contradicts numerous other studies. I should note as well that there is a fantastic return rate of around 85 per cent I recall a result unlikely in the best of conditions. The results also contradict other polls. Of course CBC has not commented on any of these possible problems as yet. In fact the CBC report I saw did not even mention that the polling was not done by Environics itself--unlike the information on the Environics site which is quite upfront in contrast.
This article for me is the last straw. It shows convincingly that something is rotten in Denmark or at least the CBC. If it is not rotten the wood is so thick that nothing penetrates it.
Polling Afghanistan
Questions and Contradictions
October 22, 2007
The Environics poll, conducted by D3 Systems in Afghanistan is being touted as "groundbreaking" research into the views of the Afghan people about the NATO occupation. The reality is that there are as many questions as answers arising from the poll results.
This new poll is not the first of its kind to be done in Afghanistan, but the results are striking because they contradict dozens of comprehensive studies conducted by other agencies. For example a remarkable 73 per cent of respondents in the D3 Systems study said that women's rights were improving in Afghanistan. This contradicts the NGO Womenkind Worldwide which found that attacks against women have actually been on the rise since 2001 and that there had been no improvement in the lives of Afghan women as a whole.
Likewise, a whopping 76 per cent of people said that they have "a lot" or "some" confidence in the Afghan National Army and 60 per cent have faith in the Afghan National Police (ANP). This contradicts countless documents from groups like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch who have consistently found that a majority of Afghans cite the Army and ANP as a chief source of violence. In fact, poll results from December 2006 found 78 per cent of Afghan people believed that the ANP was corrupt and one in four Afghans had to pay bribes to local police for protection. So therefore, the numbers from D3 Systems either represent an astounding turnaround in public opinion or there was some type of flaw in the research.
These strange results aren't surprising given the history of the D3 Systems polling firm. The group, whose former clients include NATO and the RAND Corporation (a virtual who's who of the military industrial complex) is notorious for providing the results that are needed to advance a political agenda.
Tellingly, D3 Systems is the only polling form in the world that was able to consistently show that a majority of Iraqis felt their lives had improved since the invasion of 2003. In 2004 and 2005, D3 conducted polls for media outlets based in the US and found more than 50 per cent of Iraqis were exited about their future. As late as 2006 D3 found a miraculous 64 per cent of Iraqis who felt that their lives were improving.
There are still many other unanswered questions about this survey. For example, did security or military contingents escort the survey teams around the country? If so the results will be terribly skewed, as these types of escorts would have destroyed the impartiality of the surveyors. Also, if 75 per cent of respondents called for a negotiated settlement with the Taliban (a number that has been omitted from most media reports on the survey) how do we reconcile that with the 64 per cent who want us to continue to fight the Taliban. Furthermore, if only 2 per cent of respondents knew that Canada was fighting the Taliban, how did that 64 per cent think that we were doing a good job.
This survey has come out at a particularly fortuitous time for the Conservative government, days after a throne speech advocating and extension of Canada's war in Afghanistan and a week before a pan-Canadian day of action against the war. But as with most of what we hear from the Conservatives, the numbers just don't add up.
This article for me is the last straw. It shows convincingly that something is rotten in Denmark or at least the CBC. If it is not rotten the wood is so thick that nothing penetrates it.
Polling Afghanistan
Questions and Contradictions
October 22, 2007
The Environics poll, conducted by D3 Systems in Afghanistan is being touted as "groundbreaking" research into the views of the Afghan people about the NATO occupation. The reality is that there are as many questions as answers arising from the poll results.
This new poll is not the first of its kind to be done in Afghanistan, but the results are striking because they contradict dozens of comprehensive studies conducted by other agencies. For example a remarkable 73 per cent of respondents in the D3 Systems study said that women's rights were improving in Afghanistan. This contradicts the NGO Womenkind Worldwide which found that attacks against women have actually been on the rise since 2001 and that there had been no improvement in the lives of Afghan women as a whole.
Likewise, a whopping 76 per cent of people said that they have "a lot" or "some" confidence in the Afghan National Army and 60 per cent have faith in the Afghan National Police (ANP). This contradicts countless documents from groups like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch who have consistently found that a majority of Afghans cite the Army and ANP as a chief source of violence. In fact, poll results from December 2006 found 78 per cent of Afghan people believed that the ANP was corrupt and one in four Afghans had to pay bribes to local police for protection. So therefore, the numbers from D3 Systems either represent an astounding turnaround in public opinion or there was some type of flaw in the research.
These strange results aren't surprising given the history of the D3 Systems polling firm. The group, whose former clients include NATO and the RAND Corporation (a virtual who's who of the military industrial complex) is notorious for providing the results that are needed to advance a political agenda.
Tellingly, D3 Systems is the only polling form in the world that was able to consistently show that a majority of Iraqis felt their lives had improved since the invasion of 2003. In 2004 and 2005, D3 conducted polls for media outlets based in the US and found more than 50 per cent of Iraqis were exited about their future. As late as 2006 D3 found a miraculous 64 per cent of Iraqis who felt that their lives were improving.
There are still many other unanswered questions about this survey. For example, did security or military contingents escort the survey teams around the country? If so the results will be terribly skewed, as these types of escorts would have destroyed the impartiality of the surveyors. Also, if 75 per cent of respondents called for a negotiated settlement with the Taliban (a number that has been omitted from most media reports on the survey) how do we reconcile that with the 64 per cent who want us to continue to fight the Taliban. Furthermore, if only 2 per cent of respondents knew that Canada was fighting the Taliban, how did that 64 per cent think that we were doing a good job.
This survey has come out at a particularly fortuitous time for the Conservative government, days after a throne speech advocating and extension of Canada's war in Afghanistan and a week before a pan-Canadian day of action against the war. But as with most of what we hear from the Conservatives, the numbers just don't add up.
Thomas Walkom: Afghan poll not as clear as it seems
This article questions how the poll is to be interpreted given that it is to be accepted at face value. Walkom points out the polling itself might have problems but does not really go into them. Neither does he point out that the poll is in contradiction to other polls and data. I have pointed out some of the further problems about the polling itself and the company involved. I will present one further post that shows that the same company has done polls in Iraq that are quite controversial.
Afghan poll not as clear as it seems
Oct 21, 2007 04:30 AM
Thomas Walkom
Do ordinary Afghans want Canada to stay in Kandahar until the Taliban is defeated?
Initial reports of an Environics survey released Thursday suggest the answer is a strong yes. "Majority of Afghans want foreign troops to stay and fight" was The Globe and Mail's headline.
Analysts argued that the poll results, based on interviews conducted last month in the war-torn country, would bolster Prime Minister Stephen Harper's efforts to keep Canadian troops fighting in Kandahar past February 2009.
But when the poll is examined more carefully (it's available at http://erg.environics.net), its findings become far less definitive. Indeed, it is not clear that they provide solace to any of the politicians now debating Canada's Afghan mission.
First, let us be clear about what the survey did not find. It did not find that a majority of Afghans want foreign troops to stay and fight. It did find that a majority of those polled approved of the "presence of foreign countries" in Afghanistan.
But that term "presence" included everything foreigners are doing in the country, from aid to business to soldiering.
In Kandahar, for instance, India was rated more highly than Canada. But, as the survey notes, India's main contribution there is not troops but goods and entrepreneurs.
On the question of foreign troops, the poll concluded that Afghans are split down the middle – with 52 per cent calling for a full withdrawal within five years versus 43 per cent who want NATO to stay until the Taliban are crushed.
In short, the vast majority of Afghans don't want us to keep fighting in their country until, as Harper puts it, the job is done. Yet neither, it seems, do they favour those, like the New Democrats, who would pull out Canadian troops immediately, or even those, like the Liberals, who would have us end our combat role by 2009.
Elsewhere, the poll results are equally murky. On the one hand, the survey shows that close to three quarters of Afghans do not like the Taliban – thereby strengthening Harper's pro-war argument.
Yet at the same time, 74 per cent say they want their government to negotiate with the Taliban, which is the NDP position.
And more than half say they want to be ruled by a coalition government that includes the Taliban.
Assuming that it is possible to carry out a scientific poll in a country wracked by civil war, what then does this survey tell us?
One, it demonstrates that Afghans do not want to be abandoned by the world again. Hence the overwhelming desire for a continued "foreign presence." Two, while they do not like the Taliban, neither do they demonize them – which is why most would prefer a negotiated end to civil war over continued violence.
Three, they are deeply ambivalent about the presence of foreign troops. They don't want to throw them out. But, at the same time, they are not sure they want them to remain indefinitely. There is a limit to their patience and hospitality.
Finally, the survey provides a rather humbling insight into how Afghans view Canada's military role. The short answer is that they don't. Even in Kandahar, just 2 per cent of those polled knew that Canada was fighting the Taliban. Germany got a bigger mention and it has no troops there.
When Afghans were asked specifically about Canada, most were delightfully complimentary. But first they had to be reminded we were there. One hopes they weren't just being polite.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thomas Walkom's column appears Thursday and Sunday.
Afghan poll not as clear as it seems
Oct 21, 2007 04:30 AM
Thomas Walkom
Do ordinary Afghans want Canada to stay in Kandahar until the Taliban is defeated?
Initial reports of an Environics survey released Thursday suggest the answer is a strong yes. "Majority of Afghans want foreign troops to stay and fight" was The Globe and Mail's headline.
Analysts argued that the poll results, based on interviews conducted last month in the war-torn country, would bolster Prime Minister Stephen Harper's efforts to keep Canadian troops fighting in Kandahar past February 2009.
But when the poll is examined more carefully (it's available at http://erg.environics.net), its findings become far less definitive. Indeed, it is not clear that they provide solace to any of the politicians now debating Canada's Afghan mission.
First, let us be clear about what the survey did not find. It did not find that a majority of Afghans want foreign troops to stay and fight. It did find that a majority of those polled approved of the "presence of foreign countries" in Afghanistan.
But that term "presence" included everything foreigners are doing in the country, from aid to business to soldiering.
In Kandahar, for instance, India was rated more highly than Canada. But, as the survey notes, India's main contribution there is not troops but goods and entrepreneurs.
On the question of foreign troops, the poll concluded that Afghans are split down the middle – with 52 per cent calling for a full withdrawal within five years versus 43 per cent who want NATO to stay until the Taliban are crushed.
In short, the vast majority of Afghans don't want us to keep fighting in their country until, as Harper puts it, the job is done. Yet neither, it seems, do they favour those, like the New Democrats, who would pull out Canadian troops immediately, or even those, like the Liberals, who would have us end our combat role by 2009.
Elsewhere, the poll results are equally murky. On the one hand, the survey shows that close to three quarters of Afghans do not like the Taliban – thereby strengthening Harper's pro-war argument.
Yet at the same time, 74 per cent say they want their government to negotiate with the Taliban, which is the NDP position.
And more than half say they want to be ruled by a coalition government that includes the Taliban.
Assuming that it is possible to carry out a scientific poll in a country wracked by civil war, what then does this survey tell us?
One, it demonstrates that Afghans do not want to be abandoned by the world again. Hence the overwhelming desire for a continued "foreign presence." Two, while they do not like the Taliban, neither do they demonize them – which is why most would prefer a negotiated end to civil war over continued violence.
Three, they are deeply ambivalent about the presence of foreign troops. They don't want to throw them out. But, at the same time, they are not sure they want them to remain indefinitely. There is a limit to their patience and hospitality.
Finally, the survey provides a rather humbling insight into how Afghans view Canada's military role. The short answer is that they don't. Even in Kandahar, just 2 per cent of those polled knew that Canada was fighting the Taliban. Germany got a bigger mention and it has no troops there.
When Afghans were asked specifically about Canada, most were delightfully complimentary. But first they had to be reminded we were there. One hopes they weren't just being polite.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thomas Walkom's column appears Thursday and Sunday.
Polling of Afghans open to a lot of interpretation
It is comforting to know that I am not the only one questioning the Afghan poll. This is from the Harper Index. As a later post also shows the same company manages to produce polls in Iraq in which people are optimistic about their futures! It all begins to sound more and more suspicious and these pollsters begin to look as if they are wittingly or unwittingly part of a large psy-ops operation. It is a bit surprising to me that Environics and the CBC would get involved with such a group except perhaps they were sold a bill of goods. That at least is the most charitable interpretation. Perhaps they are out to sell someone else a bill of goods.
Polling of Afghans open to a lot of interpretation
Report of high approval rating of Canada among Afghanis contradicts poll last year that showed no awareness of Canada at all.
OTTAWA, October 22, 2007: Last week the CBC and Globe and Mail released an Environics poll that indicated overwhelming support for the Canadian mission in Afghanistan among that country's citizens. The poll was given high prominence by these news outlets and drove much of their news coverage last week, giving the government opportunity to promote the mission.
Closer scrutiny calls into question the poll's findings, bias, limitations and credibility. Corinne Allan is an Ottawa computer consultant who publishes the website yayaCanada.com. She points out that the poll "was actually conducted by the Afghanistan Centre for Social and Opinion Research, a Kabul-based subsidiary of the US survey company, D3 Systems, Inc."
D3 is a firm "two of whose researchers published a paper entitled 'Starting from Scratch: Making Research a Reality in Afghanistan' in late 2005, on the difficulties of conducting an accurate survey in Afghanistan." Their paper, she writes, discussed "the many obstacles still to be overcome, such as the low literacy rate and natural resistance to whole idea of being surveyed, resulting in a lot of non-responses - obviously making percentages a little dubious if people who would have responded negatively simply do not respond at all - and the fact that: 'the temptation is sometimes strong for an interviewer who has traveled several hours to a rural location and failed to complete many interviews to cheat and complete them on his or her own.' [italics added]
"And while the claim is that women interviewed the women, in fact it was so difficult to accomplish this that at one point the women interviewers quit en masse.
"Now, in 2007, the authors of that paper are still talking about those very same difficulties in a recent paper entitled 'Research in war zones: Methodology vs. practicality in Iraq and Afghanistan', yet they still manage to crank out what the US, and therefore also Stephen Harper, want to hear."
It is worth comparing the last week's poll with the poll conducted in Afghanistan last year by The Asia Foundation (below), which contradicts the Environics poll in several ways. According to that survey, for instance, no one in Afghanistan last year appeared to know Canada was involved there when asked in an unprompted way, unlike the new Environics poll. Eight other countries, including Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, were named on a list of nations offering development aid. Canada was not. In last week's Decima poll, only two percent of Afghans in the Kandahar area, where Canadian troops are based, were aware of Canada's presence.
Yesterday, in the Toronto Star, Thomas Walkom pointed out that last week's poll "did not find that a majority of Afghans want foreign troops to stay and fight. It did find that a majority of those polled approved of the 'presence of foreign countries' in Afghanistan."
On the main question of whether foreign troops should stay or go, Walkom observes that "Afghans are split down the middle with 52 per cent calling for a full withdrawal within five years versus 43 per cent who want NATO to stay until the Taliban are crushed."
He points to contradictions, including the nearly three-quarters opposition to the the Taliban and 74 per cent calling for negotiations with them. "And more than half say they want to be ruled by a coalition government that includes the Taliban."
As Walkom points out, recognition of Canada by those in the poll may have been merely polite. "When Afghans were asked specifically about Canada, most were delightfully complimentary. But first they had to be reminded we were there."
Polling of Afghans open to a lot of interpretation
Report of high approval rating of Canada among Afghanis contradicts poll last year that showed no awareness of Canada at all.
OTTAWA, October 22, 2007: Last week the CBC and Globe and Mail released an Environics poll that indicated overwhelming support for the Canadian mission in Afghanistan among that country's citizens. The poll was given high prominence by these news outlets and drove much of their news coverage last week, giving the government opportunity to promote the mission.
Closer scrutiny calls into question the poll's findings, bias, limitations and credibility. Corinne Allan is an Ottawa computer consultant who publishes the website yayaCanada.com. She points out that the poll "was actually conducted by the Afghanistan Centre for Social and Opinion Research, a Kabul-based subsidiary of the US survey company, D3 Systems, Inc."
D3 is a firm "two of whose researchers published a paper entitled 'Starting from Scratch: Making Research a Reality in Afghanistan' in late 2005, on the difficulties of conducting an accurate survey in Afghanistan." Their paper, she writes, discussed "the many obstacles still to be overcome, such as the low literacy rate and natural resistance to whole idea of being surveyed, resulting in a lot of non-responses - obviously making percentages a little dubious if people who would have responded negatively simply do not respond at all - and the fact that: 'the temptation is sometimes strong for an interviewer who has traveled several hours to a rural location and failed to complete many interviews to cheat and complete them on his or her own.' [italics added]
"And while the claim is that women interviewed the women, in fact it was so difficult to accomplish this that at one point the women interviewers quit en masse.
"Now, in 2007, the authors of that paper are still talking about those very same difficulties in a recent paper entitled 'Research in war zones: Methodology vs. practicality in Iraq and Afghanistan', yet they still manage to crank out what the US, and therefore also Stephen Harper, want to hear."
It is worth comparing the last week's poll with the poll conducted in Afghanistan last year by The Asia Foundation (below), which contradicts the Environics poll in several ways. According to that survey, for instance, no one in Afghanistan last year appeared to know Canada was involved there when asked in an unprompted way, unlike the new Environics poll. Eight other countries, including Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, were named on a list of nations offering development aid. Canada was not. In last week's Decima poll, only two percent of Afghans in the Kandahar area, where Canadian troops are based, were aware of Canada's presence.
Yesterday, in the Toronto Star, Thomas Walkom pointed out that last week's poll "did not find that a majority of Afghans want foreign troops to stay and fight. It did find that a majority of those polled approved of the 'presence of foreign countries' in Afghanistan."
On the main question of whether foreign troops should stay or go, Walkom observes that "Afghans are split down the middle with 52 per cent calling for a full withdrawal within five years versus 43 per cent who want NATO to stay until the Taliban are crushed."
He points to contradictions, including the nearly three-quarters opposition to the the Taliban and 74 per cent calling for negotiations with them. "And more than half say they want to be ruled by a coalition government that includes the Taliban."
As Walkom points out, recognition of Canada by those in the poll may have been merely polite. "When Afghans were asked specifically about Canada, most were delightfully complimentary. But first they had to be reminded we were there."
Saturday, October 20, 2007
Afghan poll
Actually the polling was done by a Kabul firm under the supervision of Environics. I will post more on this. The poll results are quite interesting but in many cases are exactly what Karzai would like to hear. There are obvious difficulties with polling in Afghanistan. The pollsters have certainly tried to get a representative sammpling in terms of location gender etc. but even so I wonder about some of the results. For example what was the tribal composition of the Kandahar samples? There is very strong support for Karzai's government but that would hardly be surprising if you are polling his tribal group. It was probably impossible to poll in areas where the Taliban are quite strong. I am surprised that no commentator so far has even suggested that their might be any problem about the poll! The CBC does not even mention that Environics and the CBB did not themselves do the poll but a third party.
In spite of the fact the Canadian government does not believe in negotiating with terrorists 72 per cent in Kandahar believe that a coalition government with the Taliban would be fine and 85 per cent favor negotiations with them! This of course supports Karzai very strongly and that is what makes me wonder how representative the Kandahar poll might be.
There is much interesting detail on the results at the CBC.
Afghanistan
Poll: What Afghans think
Environics poll in partnership with the CBC
Last Updated October 2007
CBC News
In September 2007 Canadian polling company Environics teamed with partners including the CBC to ask Afghan citizens living in Afghanistan what they thought about the state of affairs in their country.
Questions ranged from personal security, the role and comfort level with foreign troops, views on terrorist tactics, to their outlook for the future.
Because Canadian troops are stationed in Kandahar province, special questions about Canada's role were asked to people living in that region of Afghanistan.
The complete poll results show that the Afghan people are generally supportive of their national government, generally supportive of the role foreign troops are playing and generally optimistic about the future of their country. Nationally, 79 per cent (81 per cent in Kandahar) think things generally are going in the right direction.
In Kandahar:
One in three people believes that the Taliban would return if foreign troops pulled out before the army and police were better trained.
85 per cent believe the government should negotiate with the Taliban to reduce conflict, and 72 per cent believe a coalition government with the Taliban would be acceptible.
One in three people believes suicide bombing is sometimes justified.
In spite of the fact the Canadian government does not believe in negotiating with terrorists 72 per cent in Kandahar believe that a coalition government with the Taliban would be fine and 85 per cent favor negotiations with them! This of course supports Karzai very strongly and that is what makes me wonder how representative the Kandahar poll might be.
There is much interesting detail on the results at the CBC.
Afghanistan
Poll: What Afghans think
Environics poll in partnership with the CBC
Last Updated October 2007
CBC News
In September 2007 Canadian polling company Environics teamed with partners including the CBC to ask Afghan citizens living in Afghanistan what they thought about the state of affairs in their country.
Questions ranged from personal security, the role and comfort level with foreign troops, views on terrorist tactics, to their outlook for the future.
Because Canadian troops are stationed in Kandahar province, special questions about Canada's role were asked to people living in that region of Afghanistan.
The complete poll results show that the Afghan people are generally supportive of their national government, generally supportive of the role foreign troops are playing and generally optimistic about the future of their country. Nationally, 79 per cent (81 per cent in Kandahar) think things generally are going in the right direction.
In Kandahar:
One in three people believes that the Taliban would return if foreign troops pulled out before the army and police were better trained.
85 per cent believe the government should negotiate with the Taliban to reduce conflict, and 72 per cent believe a coalition government with the Taliban would be acceptible.
One in three people believes suicide bombing is sometimes justified.
Environics Afghan Poll
THis is from the Environics Website. THe site has lots of useful information on how the poll was conducted plus an easy to read summary of the results just as good if not better than the CBC site.
One wonders how it was decided who to poll. There must surely be districts where it is difficult to poll. The polling company has actually had a pollster shot and killed. I would venture to guess that the area is now not polled at all! It would seem natural to pick people that one knows would probably co-operate and that may give you representation in terms of gender, age, location, etc. but could provide unrepresentative answers. Anyway I am surprised that there is not even any curiousity about these issues in the media. The polling responses as mentioned at 85 per cent if far above what you would get in the west. Why?
On doing a bit of research I found that D3 Systems Inc. is a US firm or at least the president is located in Vienna Virginia. The ACSOR is thus not a native Afghan firm but a subsidiary of D3. D3 was obviously probably set up by some entrepreneurial American after the "regime change" facilitated setting up such a company.
Methodology
The research was designed by Environics, in consultation with its media and academic partners.
The survey was conducted for Environics by D3 Systems Inc. and its subsidiary, the Afghan Centre for Social and Opinion Research (ACSOR-Surveys), based in Kabul. D3 Systems/ACSOR established the capability to conduct country-wide public opinion surveys across Afghanistan following the overthrow of the Taliban in 2001, and includes among its clients the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), ABC News, the Asia Foundation, and the United Nations Industrial Development
The Environics survey was conducted by ACSOR between September 17 and 24, 2007 with a representative sample of 1,578 adult Afghans (18 years and older) across all 34 of the country's provinces. The surveys were conducted in-person in people's homes in either Dari or Pashto, the two dominant languages. Female interviewers interviewed women and male interviewers interviewed Afghan men, and the sample was stratified to ensure a 50-50 distribution on gender.
The survey sample consisted of 1,278 interviews conducted across the country, plus an additional 300 interviews to provide over-samples of 270 interviews in Kabul (the country's capital) and 260 in the province of Kandahar, where the Canadian mission is based. The margins of sampling error for these samples are plus or minus 3.8%, 7.3% and 7.3%, respectively (at the 95% confidence level). The response rate for this survey was 85 percent, a rate almost unheard of today for research conducted in the western world. Further details on the methodology used to conduct this survey are available from Environics
One wonders how it was decided who to poll. There must surely be districts where it is difficult to poll. The polling company has actually had a pollster shot and killed. I would venture to guess that the area is now not polled at all! It would seem natural to pick people that one knows would probably co-operate and that may give you representation in terms of gender, age, location, etc. but could provide unrepresentative answers. Anyway I am surprised that there is not even any curiousity about these issues in the media. The polling responses as mentioned at 85 per cent if far above what you would get in the west. Why?
On doing a bit of research I found that D3 Systems Inc. is a US firm or at least the president is located in Vienna Virginia. The ACSOR is thus not a native Afghan firm but a subsidiary of D3. D3 was obviously probably set up by some entrepreneurial American after the "regime change" facilitated setting up such a company.
Methodology
The research was designed by Environics, in consultation with its media and academic partners.
The survey was conducted for Environics by D3 Systems Inc. and its subsidiary, the Afghan Centre for Social and Opinion Research (ACSOR-Surveys), based in Kabul. D3 Systems/ACSOR established the capability to conduct country-wide public opinion surveys across Afghanistan following the overthrow of the Taliban in 2001, and includes among its clients the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), ABC News, the Asia Foundation, and the United Nations Industrial Development
The Environics survey was conducted by ACSOR between September 17 and 24, 2007 with a representative sample of 1,578 adult Afghans (18 years and older) across all 34 of the country's provinces. The surveys were conducted in-person in people's homes in either Dari or Pashto, the two dominant languages. Female interviewers interviewed women and male interviewers interviewed Afghan men, and the sample was stratified to ensure a 50-50 distribution on gender.
The survey sample consisted of 1,278 interviews conducted across the country, plus an additional 300 interviews to provide over-samples of 270 interviews in Kabul (the country's capital) and 260 in the province of Kandahar, where the Canadian mission is based. The margins of sampling error for these samples are plus or minus 3.8%, 7.3% and 7.3%, respectively (at the 95% confidence level). The response rate for this survey was 85 percent, a rate almost unheard of today for research conducted in the western world. Further details on the methodology used to conduct this survey are available from Environics
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