Liberals will make gains in Manitoba in federal election

The Liberals and the Conservatives are almost tied in the polls for the upcoming federal election in Manitoba with NDP support shrinking.

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A recent Probe Research Poll shows that roughly 39 percent of decided voters would vote for the incumbent Conservatives under Stephen Harper. The same number would vote for the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau. Only 18 percent would vote for the NDP led by Thomas Mulcair. The Liberals are making an amazing comeback after receiving just 18 percent of the vote in the 2011 election. Curtis Brown, vice president of Probe Research said: “The Liberals are now in a tie with the Conservatives in Manitoba... if you think to the last election, the Liberals were really in the ditch.” Brown noted that NDP support was down from the last election.

The ruling provincial NDP had a messy leadership fight in which many cabinet ministers challenged the premier demanding he resign. Although Sellnger retained his leadership, the internal fight with many of his best cabinet ministers weakened the party. Selinger also hiked the provincial sales tax after promising he would not during his campaign. Another Probe Research poll of voter preferences with respect to parties provincially shows the NDP losing even core support. The NDP has the support of only 25 percent of voters down 4 percent since June with the Liberals at 24 percent up 5 percent since June. The Conservatives have a 45 percent share of decided voters a slight decline of one percent since June.

Recent projections by Eric Grenier would see the Conservatives winning seven seats in Manitoba, the Liberals four, and the NDP three. The NDP is expected to win the northern Churchill riding with a 75 percent chance. The other two NDP seats are in Winnipeg, Elmwood Transcona, 71 percent chance and Winnipeg Center a long-time stronghold at 94 percent. The four Liberal seats are all in the city of Winnipeg. South Center is close with the Liberals having only a 63 percent chance over the 2nd place Conservatives. The Liberals are expected to gain Saint-Boniface-Saint Vital and also Winnipeg South. If the Liberal vote in Winnipeg continues to increase they could win even more seats.