Thursday, September 11, 2014

John Tory well ahead in Toronto mayoralty race but Rob Ford is second

John Tory, a former leader of the Progressive Conservative party of Ontario, is far in the lead for mayor of the city of Toronto. However scandal-ridden Rob Ford the present mayor is in second, and Olivia Chow of the New Democratic Party is in third.


The latest Forum Research Poll has Tory with 40 percent support, to 28 percent for Ford and just 21 percent for Olivia Chow. Chow has seen her support dwindle in Scarborough in the east end of Toronto from 31 percent in July to nine percent at present lower than the approximately 13 per cent for Ford. The CEO of Forum Research Lorne Bozinoff said of Olivia Chow: “Her support really has been declining over the last two months, and she’s hit a new low now … she’s one of the candidates that wants to replace the Scarborough subway with an LRT, and that’s really costing her support. Not surprisingly, almost all the Chow vote would go to John Tory. None of it really would go to Rob Ford." Chow also is in favor of improving bus services. Chow has now started to call herself the underdog in the race as she lags behind even the disgraced mayor Rob Ford. 
 Candidate David Soknacki is withdrawing from the race and has six percent of the vote according to Bozinoff. Three per cent of that vote is expected to go to Chow with two percent to Ford and just one percent to Tory. This will still leave Tory well in the lead. He is leading in every area of the city. The Forum poll was of 1,060 residents using an automated system of interactive voice response phone calls and has a margin of error of three percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.  
Another poll by Nanos Research earlier also showed Tory well in the lead. The poll surveyed 1,000 residents between August 27 to 31. Pollsters asked participants simply who they would vote for if the election were held today. Tory received 42 percent support, Ford 28 per cent and Olivia Chow 26 per cent. David Soknacki who is now withdrawing had three percent. The vote is to be held October 27, so there is still time for the figures to change. Tory is seen by many as the obvious choice to keep out Ford and this may be hurting Chow. Both Tory and Chow are trying to woo Liberal voters. However, the NDP irritated the Liberals by precipitating a provincial election that the Liberals won. The election could have been avoided if the NDP had supported the Liberal budget. The budget had a number of progressive features that many labor groups supported causing some friction within the New Democratic Party. 
 Just recently Rob Ford was found to have an abdominal tumor. Tests will be needed to see if the tumor is malignant. There is no indication as yet that he intends to withdraw from the race.


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