Tuesday, August 7, 2018

Greyhound to cancel almost all western Canada bus service as of October

Until now one could get on a bus on the west coast of Canada in Vancouver and travel by Greyhound all the way to the capital of Ontario in the south of the province.

As of October this year, the company plans to drop all its Canadian routes west of Sudbury in northern Ontario all the way through the three prairie provinces and BC. Only one route will remain in BC run by the US branch of the company from Vancouver to Seattle. Only parts of Ontario and Quebec will house the few remaining Greyhound routes.
The official explanation
Greyhound Canada senior vice-president Stuart Kendrick said in an interview with the Canadian Press: "This decision is regretful and we sympathize with the fact that many small towns are going to lose service. But simply put, the issue that we have seen is the routes in rural parts of Canada — specifically Western Canada — are just not sustainable anymore."
Kendrick claimed that 415 people will lose their jobs and he estimates the ending of service will impact about two million consumers. The many small towns that the decision will impact include Winnipeg, Regina, Saskatoon, Edmonton, Calgary, and Vancouver, all of the major cities in western Canada.
The company is blaming a 41 percent decline in ridership since 2010, competition from subsidized national and inter-regional passenger transportation services, the growth of new low-cost airlines, regulatory constraints, plus the growth of car ownership. Kendrick said declining ridership was the primary culprit. Kendrick noted that in many communities there will be no alternate bus service.
Kendrick claimed: "The company has experienced significant losses despite continued efforts to return to viability. In the affected regions, the company has run an operating deficit since 2004. We have had substantial losses over several years as a direct result of declining ridership."
Some questions about the official story
Greyhound is owned in Great Britain by First Group and headquartered in Dallas Texas. They have little interest in serving the vast reaches of western Canada on routes that do not make a profit. They have already discontinued routes in northern BC as of June 1 and other routes, even one along the Yellowhead main highway from Winnipeg to Saskatoon detours now up to Dauphin and then to Yorkton and Saskatoon.
Often there is little or no competition along the major routes such as the Trans-Canada. Last March the main competitor in Saskatchewan, the government owned 70-year old Saskatchewan Transportation was shut down as the government refused to keep subsidizing the service that served many rural communities throughout the province. An article in Digital Journal reported on the closing.
It is not surprising that ridership has declined in that the company has been cutting service even between major centers or the service is at times that may not be convenient for customers. The bus station in Brandon is now open only at certain times.
While the major routes along the Trans-Canada probably make a profit the company no doubt prefers to operate only in areas with high population density that generate more traffic and revenue rather than serve a smaller population over a huge area.
The decision will have very negative effects on remote communities
Sheila North, grand chief of the Keewatinowi Okimakanak said that Northern Canada would be where the change would be felt most deeply: “I think this is abandoning the North,” she said, citing a high demand in the region for transportation services — “especially for those that live in poverty, but also who have medical needs that need to get down to the south for resources that are not accessible in the North.” Darlene Okemaysim Sicotte of Saskatchewan said the decision would provoke a northern crisis and said: “It’s going to affect a lot of people (who will be) very, very isolated, especially the vulnerable people who have to deal with poverty and mental health and physical health issues that need treatment.”
Claire Trevena BC Transportation Minister said the decision would make it very difficult for those who use the service in the interior and depend on it to go to and from Alberta. Trevena said: “At no point did Greyhound reach out to me, or my staff, to have a conversation on solutions to keep people connected — something I would have expected, given their long history in this province. In the weeks and months ahead, I will be sitting down with other service providers, the private sector and local government to discuss how we can ensure people have access to safe, reliable and affordable transportation to get from one community to the next.”
Grand Chief of the Assembly of Manitoba Chiefs, Arlen Dumas, noted that its members were heavily reliant on Greyhound for transportation especially for medical conditions. Dumas said: “It is already well documented that our citizens have to ride the bus for hours, some longer than 14 hours, in order to see a doctor. How will they get access to adequate health care now?” Grand Chief Arlen Dumas wondered in a statement, which also noted that “health care is a treaty right.”
Deregulation contributed to the loss of service
A recent article in The Star by Thomas Walkom blames governments' fascination with deregulation that has forced Greyhound into abandoning its western Canadian routes. In earlier periods, when bus travel was much more prevalent companies were given a specific deal. They would be licensed to serve very profitable routes but in return had to operate less profitable often rural routes. This system worked by and large as most small communities in Ontario at least had some form of regular bus service.
However, in the province of Saskatchewan the government owned Saskatchewan Transportation served the whole province including many small rural communities whose service was subsidized by profits from routes such as that between Regina and Saskatoon. The service ran for 70 years and when it was ended last year the decision was extremely unpopular.
However, governments began to move towards deregulation arguing that this would encourage competition and drive down prices. The situation varied from province to province. On well-traveled routes between big cities such as Montreal and Toronto fares did fall but then companies had less extra funds to subsidize unprofitable routes. Naturally companies began to drop these routes. The problem is that instead of being a public service travel becomes a source of profit.
The Ontario system favored large operators such as Greyhound according to Walkom: "It was a system that benefited big operators, such as Greyhound (which by the mid-1990s had purchased most of Gray Coach Lines). On the one hand, their profitable routes were protected from too much competition. On the other, they had to give almost nothing in return."
In 2009 Greyhound had demanded government subsidies as a condition for keeping bus services alive in the western provinces but only Manitoba provided a degree of subsidization.
The solution to the problem is to consider buses as a public service. Private enterprise will not operate a bus business if it will not make a profit but given the large number of far flung rural and northern communities in the west there is no way that such routes would be profitable. We don't expect our schools or courts to make a profit. Each province could have a system such as the Saskatchewan government had for 70 years. Or alternatively the federal government could set up a Canada-wide system owned by the federal government.

Previously published in Digital Journal

Wednesday, July 25, 2018

Canadian consumer confidence slides as trade friction increases between US and Canada

(June 26) Canadian consumer confidence slides as trade friction between Canada and the U.S. escalates. A new poll by Nanos Research shows a sharp drop in household sentiment two weeks after Trudeau and Trump had a tiff after a G7 summit.

Canadian consumer confidence at lowest level in 2 years
Trump had threatened that his dispute with Canada over tariffs he levied on steel and aluminum would end up costing the Canadian people a lot of money. The consumer confidence level has fallen to the lowest level in two years.
Nick Nanos, the chair of Nanos Research said: “We rarely see an all out economic threat issued by anyone to Canada. It’s probably fair to say a certain proportion of Canadians think that Canada will pay and it won’t be a pleasant experience.”
The survey shows the extent to which the trade tensions are creating anxiety about the Canadian economy. The Canadian economy is highly dependent on that of the US for exports. The heightened uncertainty created by Trump's policies could prompt both consumers and businesses to scale back spending. This uncertainty could have a greater negative threat than the actual tariffs themselves.
Later this week the first survey of business sentiment since the recent G7 meeting in Canada are expected to be released. These should provide more insight into the extent to which the trade dispute is impacting investment decisions. On Thursday the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) will release it small business barometer. On Friday, the Bank of Canada publishes a quarterly survey of executives.
The Nanos survey
Each week, Nanos Research polls 250 Canadian asking questions on personal finances, the outlook for the economy, job security. and where real estates prices are going. Bloomberg then publishes four-week rolling averages of the 1,000 telephone responses. The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index is calculated from the rolling averages of the above-mentioned four questions.
For the week ending June 22, the overall index was down to 55.3 the lowest since 2016 and down from the 57.1 of the previous week. The one week gap is the largest since Nanos began its polls in 2013
The results show a decline in sentiment for all questions but the largest drop is in the outlook for the economy. Only 14.7 of those polled thought that the economy would get stronger over the next six months. This is the lowest since 2015 when Canada was technically in a recession. The percentage who thought the economy would weaken was 38.2 the highest since back in 2016.
Nanos chair, Nik Nanos said: “Of note, there was negative pressure on all four economic indicators – personal finances, future strength of the Canadian economy, job security and future value of real estate. The most pronounced one-week drops in consumer confidence were in the Prairie regions and Ontario.”
US Canada relations are strained
An article in the Star shows the complex events that led ultimately to the Trump outburst against Trudeau at the end of the G7 summit in Canada. The articleconcludes: "In the end, a summit meant to patch trade rifts ended with a deeper acrimony and questions about the Canada-U.S. relationship and how it could recover in the crucial weeks ahead."
Trudeau had said at a press conference at the end of the conference that the decision to impose tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel was insulting. Trump and his advisers were angry and Trump tweeted from Air Force one that Trudeau was dishonest and weak. His trade adviser, Peter Navarro even said that there was a special place in hell for leaders such as Trudeau who negotiated in bad faith Navarro later apologized, at least for his wording. Trump refused to accept the final joint communique.
Consumer confidence often a good guide to economic health
The tension with Trump has just added fears to households that were already uneasy about the future. For much of this year consumer confidence has been low. Headwinds have included higher interest rates and a slowing of the real estate market. For three quarters in a row economic growth has been unable to grow above 2 percent. Such a slow growth rate has not happened since 2015.
While most economist expect the economy to grow over 2 percent for the remainder of 2018, the recent tariffs and looming trade war could change the outlook. Nanos said: “We have to see whether things settle in terms of people thinking this is maybe a one-off or a significant decline is on the way."

Previously pubolished in Digital Journal